What’s Up: Juli 2020

Pemerintah Boris Johnson menyatakan hampir tiga juta warga Hong Kong memenuhi syarat untuk mendapatkan Paspor Nasional Inggris (Luar Negeri). Saat ini, 350.000 penduduk Hong Kong secara resmi memiliki paspor BNO dan dapat ditingkatkan menjadi kewarganegaraan Inggris. Langkah kontroversial tersebut diambil setelah Cina memberlakukan undang-undang keamanan nasional yang memungkinkan pihak berwenang untuk menindak kegiatan subversif dan separatis di Hong Kong. Keputusan Perdana Menteri Johnson dikecam oleh Beijing sebagai tindakan campur tangan dalam urusan dalam negeri China-Hong Kong.

Boris Johnson government says nearly three million Hong Kong citizens are eligible to get a British National (Overseas) passport. At present, 350,000 Hong Kong residents officially have a BNO passport and can be upgraded to British citizenship. The controversial move was taken after China imposed a national security law that allowed authorities to crack down on subversive and separatist activities in Hong Kong. Prime Minister Johnson’s decision was condemned by Beijing as an act of interference in China-Hong Kong’s domestic affairs.

Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-01/u-k-to-give-hong-kong-nationals-way-out-after-china-crackdown


Amerika Serikat menolak klaim Tiongkok atas Laut Cina Selatan termasuk Zona Ekonomi Eksklusif (ZEE) yang terdiri dari Scarborough Reef dan Kepulauan Spratly di Filipina. Klaim dan upaya Beijing mengendalikan sumber daya lepas pantai di sebagian besar Laut Cina Selatan dinilai sebagai pelanggaran hukum.

The United States rejects Chinese claims to the South China Sea including the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) consisting of the Scarborough Reef and the Spratly Islands in the Philippines. Beijing’s claims and efforts to control offshore resources in most of the South China Sea are considered unlawful.

U.S. Department of State: https://www.state.gov/u-s-position-on-maritime-claims-in-the-south-china-sea/


Sejak kematian Muammar Gaddafi, Libya jatuh ke dalam perang saudara. Kekacauan tersebut memicu ancaman eksternal berkepanjangan. Salah satu contohnya adalah rencana Turki mengeksplorasi sumber daya alam di wilayah Mediterania. Saat ini, pasukan Pemerintah Kesepakatan Nasional (GNA) yang didukung PBB dan Turki di ambang perang melawan pasukan Tentara Nasional Libya (LNA) yang dipimpin Jenderal Haftar Khalifa. LNA mendapat dukungan dari Mesir, Uni Emirat Arab, Yunani dan Perancis. Apabila pemain baru seperti Amerika Serikat, Rusia ikut mengintervensi, situasi Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara akan semakin runyam.

Since the death of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya has fallen into a civil war. The chaos triggered prolonged external threats. One of the examples is Turkey’s plan to explore natural resources in the Mediterranean region. This time, the United Nations and Turkey-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) forces are on the brink of war against the Libyan National Army (LNA) forces led by General Haftar Khalifa. LNA has the support of Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Greece, and France. If new players like the United States, Russia intervene, the situation in the Middle East and North Africa will be even worse.

Middle East Monitor: https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20200714-the-unlikely-war-between-egypt-and-turkey-in-libya/


IMF mencatat pertumbuhan ekonomi di Timur Tengah dan Asia Tengah menyusut 4,7 persen tahun ini, 2 persen lebih rendah dari perkiraan bulan April 2020. Pandemi Covid-19 berdampak buruk bagi bisnis dan ketenagakerjaan regional. Pada tahun 2020, pendapatan regional dari bisnis minyak diprediksi minus hingga 270 miliar dolar karena permintaan turun drastis dan perang harga minyak. IMF menyatakan akan ada potensi gejolak sosial dan ketidakstabilan politik baru di wilayah tersebut.

The IMF noted economic growth in the Middle East and Central Asia had shrunk 4.7 percent this year, 2 percent lower than the April forecast. The Covid-19 pandemic hurts regional business and employment. In 2020, regional revenues from the oil business are predicted to be minus 270 billion dollars due to the drastic fall in demand and the oil price war. The IMF said there would be potential for new social upheaval and political instability in the region.

Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/imf-warns-deeper-mena-recession-rising-social-unrest-risks-200713134729418.html


Pemerintah Jepang akan memberikan dukungan keuangan yang diperkirakan bernilai sekitar ¥ 70 miliar kepada perusahaan-perusahaan pembuat elektronik dan telekomunikasi lokal seperti NEC Corp. dan Fujitsu Ltd. untuk mengembangkan generasi baru jaringan nirkabel 5G dan menara BTS. Jepang ingin mengejar ketinggalan dari Tiongkok (Huawei), Swedia (Ericsson), dan Finlandia (Nokia).

The Japanese government will provide financial support estimated at around ¥ 70 billion to local electronics and telecommunications companies such as NEC Corp. and Fujitsu Ltd. to develop a new generation of 5G wireless networks and BTS towers. Japan wants to catch up with China (Huawei), Sweden (Ericsson), and Finland (Nokia).

Japan Times: https://bit.ly/2C4FpaM


Pembajakan, penculikan, dan gerakan teroris terus berlanjut di tengah pandemi Covid-19 di Laut Sulu, wilayah perairan di timur laut Kalimantan yang berbatasan langsung dengan Malaysia dan Filipina. Sejak abad ke- 16, Laut Sulu menjadi lokasi banyak insiden yang dilakoni beragam aktor, termasuk konflik antara kolonialis Spanyol melawan masyarakat Moro. Sejak tahun 1970-an, pembajakan di Laut Sulu semakin marak setelah Front Pembebasan Nasional Moro (MNLF) dan Front Pembebasan Islam Moro (MILF) memanfaatkan kejahatan maritim untuk membiayai pemberontakan bersenjata mereka.

Piracy, kidnapping and terrorist movements continued amid the Covid-19 pandemic in the Sulu Sea, territorial waters in northeast Borneo which borders directly with Malaysia and the Philippines. Since the 16th century, the Sulu Sea has been the location of many incidents by various actors, including conflicts between the Spanish colonialists and the Moro people. Since the 1970s, piracy in the Sulu Sea has intensified after the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) have used maritime crime to finance their armed rebellion.

The Diplomat: https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/dangerous-waters-maritime-crime-in-the-sulu-sea/


Pada tahun 2020, Pemerintah Tiongkok berjanji menggelontorkan lebih banyak investasi untuk mewujudkan impian besar membangun infrastruktur baru berbasis teknologi informasi yang terdiri dari artificial intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT), big data, robot, jaringan internet 5G, dan lain-lain.

In 2020, the Chinese Government promises to pour more investment into realizing the big dream of building a new infrastructure based on information technology consisting of artificial intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT), big data, robotics, 5G internet networks, etc.

Caixin Global: https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-07-01/chinas-it-spending-expected-to-hit-297-billion-idc-101574237.html


Presiden Donald Trump mengumumkan akan menarik mundur sekitar 10.000 prajurit dari 34.500 prajurit yang saat ini bertugas pangkalan militer Amerika Serikat di Stuttgart, Jerman. Trump belum membuat pengumuman publik yang merinci alasannya, tetapi para pengamat memprediksi pasukan tersebut akan pindah bertugas ke kawasan Indo-Pasifik. Perpindahan tersebut akan memaksa Berlin memberikan kontribusi lebih banyak bagi keamanan Eropa. Sekutu Amerika Serikat di Eropa dan Afrika khawatir pengurangan pasukan akan merusak kepentingan strategis dan global Amerika Serikat, serta berpotensi melemahkan solidaritas NATO.

President Donald Trump announced he would withdraw about 10,000 troops from 34,500 troops currently serving in the United States military base in Stuttgart, Germany. Trump has not yet made a public announcement detailing his reasons, but observers predict the force will move to the Indo-Pacific region. The move will force Berlin to contribute more to European security. The US allies in Europe and Africa worry that the reduction in troops will damage the strategic and global interests of the United States, and potentially weaken NATO solidarity.

Carnegie Europe: https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/82099

The Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-u-s-is-moving-troops-out-of-germany-11592757552


Lebih dari 12.000 bioskop dan industri pendukungnya seperti restoran dan retail ditutup sejak bulan Januari 2020 hingga hari ini. 1.542 bioskop dan studio film, 8.000 perusahaan produksi film dan konsultan film di Tiongkok sudah menyatakan bangkrut. Krisis tersebut dipicu oleh pandemi Covid-19 yang masih merebak di Tiongkok, pihak berwenang masih membatasi aktivitas masyarakat di tempat-tempat umum.

More than 12,000 theaters and supporting industries such as restaurants and retails have been closed since January 2020 until today. 1,542 cinemas and film studios, 8,000 film production companies, and film consultants in China have declared bankruptcy. The Covid-19 pandemic is still rife in China, so the authorities are still restricting people’s activities in public places.

New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/15/business/china-economy-movie-theaters.html


Taiwan membuka kembali kantor perwakilan Taipei Economic and Cultural Office (TECO) di Guam, sebuah pulau pangkalan militer Amerika Serikat di Mikronesia, di Pasifik Barat. Hal tersebut mengirimkan sinyal kepada Beijing bahwa hubungan Taiwan dan Amerika Serikat semakin erat dalam menghadapi eskalasi ketegangan dan persaingan sengit dengan Tiongkok.

Taiwan reopens the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office (TECO) representative office on Guam, a US military base island in Micronesia, in the Western Pacific. It is a signal to Beijing that Taiwan and the United States have become increasingly close to face escalating tensions and fierce competition with China.

South China Morning Post: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3091686/taiwan-will-reopen-guam-office-sign-stronger-ties-us-face


Pada bulan ini, Boris Johnson diperkirakan menyusun rencana menghapus Huawei dari jaringan telepon 5G Inggris. Langkah tersebut diambil setelah Johnson mendapat peringatan dari pihak keamanan Inggris bahwa kemampuan Huawei memproduksi peralatan telekomunikasi untuk memasok pasar Inggris terganggu oleh sanksi Amerika Serikat. Sanksi yang keluar pada bulan Mei 2020 tersebut memaksa Huawei menggunakan teknologi alternatif yang dikhawatirkan menimbulkan risiko keamanan baru.

This month, Boris Johnson is expected to draw up a plan to remove Huawei from the UK 5G telephone network. The move was taken after Johnson received a warning from British security authorities that Huawei’s ability to produce telecommunications equipment to supply the UK market was disrupted by US sanctions. The sanctions that came out in May 2020 forced Huawei to use an alternative technology that was feared to pose new security risks.

The Irish Times: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/uk-expected-to-phase-huawei-out-of-5g-network-1.4296720


Rusia baru saja menguji sistem satelit terbarunya di orbit bumi. Amerika Serikat berpendapat bahwa satelit itu adalah senjata Rusia terbaru yang dikembangkan untuk menyerang pesawat ruang angkasa Amerika Serikat dan satelit-satelit sekutunya.

Russia has just tested its newest satellite system in Earth orbit. The United States believes that the satellite is the latest Russian weapon developed to attack US spacecraft and allied satellites.

Defense One: https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2020/07/russia-tests-satellite-rams-other-satellites-us-says/167154/


Curah hujan tinggi berlangsung sejak bulan Juni mempengaruhi kehidupan jutaan orang di Asia Selatan dan Asia Timur. Curah hujan 20 persen lebih banyak dari biasanya terjadi di sebagian besar wilayah India. Sungai Yangtze meluap dan merendam banyak desa dan kota besar di Tiongkok selatan, tengah, dan timur. Curah hujan tiga kali di atas normal menimbulkan kerusakan serius di pulau Kyushu, yaitu di perfektur Kumamoto dan Kagoshima.

High rainfall since June has affected the lives of millions of people in South and East Asia. Rainfall is 20 percent more than usual in most parts of India. The Yangtze River overflowed and inundated many villages and large cities in southern, central, and eastern China. Three times the above-normal rainfall caused serious damages on the island of Kyushu, especially in Kumamoto and Kagoshima prefectures.

NASA Earth Observatory: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/147006/excessive-monsoon-rains-flood-asia


Apabila Amerika Serikat menyerang pulau dan karang yang dikuasai Tiongkok di Laut Cina Selatan, Tiongkok akan merespon provokasi militer dengan perang habis-habisan. Para ahli hubungan internasional dari Tiongkok menyatakan bahwa peluang terjadinya konflik militer dalam tiga bulan ke depan sangat bergantung pada sikap Gedung Putih dan apa yang dilakukan Tiongkok untuk mencegah terjadinya perang.

If the United States attacks Chinese islands and reefs in the South China Sea, China will respond to military provocation with an all-out war. International relations experts from China say that the chances of military conflict in the next three months depend heavily on the attitude of the White House and what China is doing to prevent a war.

Global Times: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1195968.shtml


Invasi belalang bambu berduri kuning yang berasal dari Phongasaly di Laos telah merusak sekitar 8.900 hektar lahan di tiga kota – Pu’er, Xishuangbanna, dan Honghe di Provinsi Yunnan, Tiongkok Barat Daya. Wilayah tersebut berbatasan dengan Laos dan Vietnam. Saat ini, Pusat pencegahan dan pengendalian wabah di Yunnan berupaya keras mengendalikan hama yang mengancam ketahanan pangan tersebut.

The invasion of yellow-spined bamboo locusts originating from Phongasaly in Laos has damaged around 8,900 hectares of land in three cities – Pu’er, Xishuangbanna, and Honghe in Yunnan Province, Southwest China. The region is bordered by Laos and Vietnam. At present, the Centers for Disease Prevention and Control in Yunnan is working hard to control pests that threaten food security.

CGTN: https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-22/Battle-against-locust-invasion-underway-in-SW-China-SkE0xK7eak/index.html


Rusia & Tiongkok mempercepat proses meninggalkan dolar AS atau de-dolarisasi setelah merencanakannya selama bertahun-tahun. Perdagangan dolar di antara kedua negara turun di bawah 50 persen pada kuartal pertama 2020. Perang dagang yang berlarut dan tuduhan kepada Tiongkok terkait merebaknya pandemi Covid-19 menjadi sejumlah pemicu de-dolarisasi. Banyak pengamat ekonomi dan investasi memprediksi Dolar Amerika Serikat akan kolaps.

Russia & China speed up the process of leaving the US dollar or de-dollarization after years of planning. Dollar trade between the two countries fell below 50 percent in the first quarter of 2020. The lengthy trade war and accusations against China related to the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic were several triggers for de-dollarization. Numerous economic and investment observers predict the United States Dollar will collapse.

Russia Today: https://www.rt.com/russia/496570-russia-china-dedollarisation-process/


Pemerintah Myanmar membuka kesempatan kepada perusahaan-perusahaan asing selain China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) untuk menggarap proyek bergengsi New Yangon City yang merupakan salah satu elemen dari China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), bagian dari Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Upaya tersebut mengurangi risiko untuk Myanmar dan membatasi peluang perusahaan Tiongkok menguasai seluruh proyek.

The Myanmar government opens opportunities for foreign companies in addition to China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) to work on the prestigious New Yangon City project which is one of the elements of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). These efforts reduce the risk for Myanmar and limit the opportunities for Chinese companies to dominate the whole projects.

The Economic Times: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/myanmar-pushes-back-against-bri-to-involve-foreign-partners-in-china-funded-mega-city-project/articleshow/77274744.cms?from=mdr

Sumber: Unsplash/@kellysikkema

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Agen Rahasia

Hobi menulis kisah intelijen. Writing intelligence stories as a hobby.

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